How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

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FieldMarshalRed
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How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by FieldMarshalRed » Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:38 pm

Hello again. I have one question about the number of Model Ts over the many decades since the end of production. How many Model Ts were used in the decades since the end of production in 1927? How many Ts were around in the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and so forth? Looking online, I found out that in 2008, it was estimated that 50-60 thousand of these historic cars are roadworthy. 15 million of these cars were produced and of the 15 million produced, it was estimated that 50-60 thousand remain on the roads. Thank you.


Burger in Spokane
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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Burger in Spokane » Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:48 pm

My sources say six.
More people are doing it today than ever before !


jiminbartow
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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by jiminbartow » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:12 am

This question has been asked countless times over the years on the forum and the answer is: nobody knows, or ever will unless a concerted worldwide effort is mounted to register all the known Model T’s, but that requires the cooperation of all Model T owners, which, due to suspicion and privacy issues, will never happen. Jim Patrick


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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Chris Barker » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:05 am

In the UK, when production ended there were about 45000 Model T cars taxed for road use (this number excludes the large numbers of TTs and other commercials - vans etc). Taxation records show that the number in use then halved every two years until, in 1938, just 1100 were still registered. Of that number about 600 survive now in the UK (that excludes a further 600 imported from the USA in the last 30 years)

If that trend were typical worldwide, and if 12 million were is use in 1927, there would have been under 200,000 left by 1939 and maybe 100,000 now.

But if you look at the membership numbers in the various clubs (<20000), and even allow for the people who aren't in clubs, and those who own 2 or even 10 Model Ts, it's hard to believe that the number now is more than 50000.

Of course, it depends what you class as a Model T. For me, it would have to be at least 2 out of 3 of rolling chassis, engine/transmission and body.

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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Mark Nunn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:45 am

I have been perusing a local online photo archive with photos tagged with the search term "auto". I viewed the photos in ascending dates. I noticed that by 1936, Model T's were absent from street scenes.

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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by DanTreace » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:15 pm

Found this reading period magazine, where the author was writing on the topic of future parts and repairs sales and money to made with the end of the Model T. This was written in 1928.




Model T Cars on the Road 1928



"By May of next year, 1928, figuring the past ratio
of retirement of Ford cars, the market will have been
reduced by about a million cars. This still leaves nine
million cars requiring parts, equipment and service.



This market of 1928 is equal to the market of June,
1925, the second biggest year in the Ford replacement
parts business.
"At the beginning of 1929 there will still be a tremendous
market, represented by nearly 8,000,000 Model T


Fords, or a greater market than that of 1924. By the
middle of 1929 there will still be about 7,000,000 Fords
needing replacement parts and services.

"When 1930 comes along nearly 6,000,000 Fords of
the present model will still be running, or a market
equivalent to that of July 1923 By June of 1930 the
market will still have more Fords in use than the total
of 1922, which was a banner year in the trade-the
year in which many predicted that the saturation point
for automobiles had about been reached.
"By January of 1931 we will still have about four
million Fords in service, this number being reduced to
about three million by the middle of that year.
"From these figures it can be readily seen that no
one need worry about any substantial reduction in this
business for some time to come. By that time a readjustment
will have taken place."


To add an update in 1948, a decade after WWII that perhaps saw most of the millions turned into scrap metal for the war effort, there were still some 10's of thousands Model T's still on the road.

"1948, R.L.Polk and Co. surveyed registered Model T's in the 48 states, and found 49,869 still registered for road left." Source: Tin Lizzie, by Ralph Stern.
The best way is always the simplest. The attics of the world are cluttered up with complicated failures. Henry Ford
Don’t find fault, find a remedy; anybody can complain. Henry Ford

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Mark Nunn
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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Mark Nunn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:36 pm

At least there was one '13 Touring still on the road and looking good in 1947.

1947 13.jpg


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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Been Here Before » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:45 pm

Well winter is coming and some one may want to review the following article and attempt to determine how many Model T's survived. Probable the best way is to review each year of production beginning in 1908 and go all the way to 1927. Determining the survival rate of each year. Survival rate for the early years should be easy. By mid production it gets a bit more complicated as more care were produced..

See:
vehicle survivability and travel mileage schedules. crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov › Api › Public › ViewPublication
PDF

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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Oldav8tor » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:33 pm

A WWII vet I knew who has since passed away told a story about working for his dad's auto parts and salvage business before the war. They'd pay $5 for a Model T, remove the parts they thought they could sell and scrap the rest. He says he stripped hundreds of cars. Along with WWII scrap drives it's a wonder any survived.
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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Burger in Spokane » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:36 pm

Let's just say one *could* actually derive an answer here. To what ends ? Seems like
an impossible conundrum to verify, and even if one had an answer, so what ? :roll:
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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Luke » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:01 am

Chris Barker wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:05 am
.... Of that number about 600 survive now in the UK (that excludes a further 600 imported from the USA in the last 30 years) .... it's hard to believe that the number now is more than 50000.

Chris,

Interesting to see your numbers, thanks.

A while ago I did an extrapolation from our own data and came up with something that's not wildly different to your view in terms of the overall number: https://mtfca.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10198

You'll see in that post how I calculated the [possible] total number I came up with. Looks as if I was a bit optimistic with the U.K. numbers, perhaps your salty roads have something to do with that!

Mark, Dan, and others; good to see some other ways of estimating this. While Brent might be right that it's impossible to know (and I think he's also saying of little value) it is nonetheless something that I am often asked. It's better, in my view, to give an intelligent and somewhat informed answer rather than just shrug one's shoulders and say 'dunno', which makes this a useful discussion to me....


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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by Chris Barker » Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:05 am

The decline in the UK of Model T cars was hastened by the annual tax regime which was based on engine bore and number of cylinders. Ford owners had to pay twice as much as the average small car. Fuel consumption of 20mpg didn't help either. UK fuel prices have always been higher than US.

But the survival guesses above are not wildly different.

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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by GrandpaFord » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:14 am

If you count the plastic Model T's with V8's, there are now more 1923 cars on the road than in 1923. Probably an exaggeration, but growing with each passing year. Why are all the new Model T's registered as 1923 models? Nobody knows.

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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by RustyFords » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:02 pm

My guess is that someone who is inclined to study numbers and geeks out on mathematica could take available data from the 1928 through WW2 if it exists, and plot a curve and come up with an educated guess.

For what purpose? Who knows. Unless you're in the Model T parts business, it seems like it would just be trivia.
1924 Touring


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Re: How Many Ts used in the decades since production ended

Post by katmankingkat » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:38 pm

My great grandmother bought a new Model T touring in 1925. She drove it until 1947 when it was parked in the shed and it's still there. It now belongs to my cousin and hasn't been run in about 10 yrs. He keeps it oiled up and turning over. I believe his son will inherit it. Not for sale.

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