Pandemic 1918 / 2020

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Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Novice » Fri May 15, 2020 2:34 am

I was interested in what effect the pandemic of 1918 had on The Ford Motor company and model T production.looking at engine serial numbers for 1918 it shows a dramatic drop in production with only 382,246 engines built in 1918. a difference of about 400,000 engines in the years before and after. 1917 & 1919. a news paper article report from the period says 2000 Ford workers struck with mystery illness. perhaps the pandemic effected workers as well as sales figures for 1918 just like they are now in 2020. Reading news from 1918 is like looking into a crystal ball to whats happening now 100 + years later. Make shift over flow tent hospitals. mandatory wearing of masks. protests and marches and open defiance of the Mask and quarantine laws. Mass graves because of overloading of funeral homes. People living in the rural areas said its a big city problem doesn't effect us until it did. A snap shot of possible things to come in 2020 ? The Pandemic waned in the summer of 1918 but got much worse in October than it had been early on as the virus mutated and was even more deadly. and the public got back to business as usual. Sound familiar.
"Those who do not remember History are surely doomed to repeat it" I surely hope and pray that is not the case. 1918 had a advantage in that they didn't have instant news and the politicians were not making it a three ring circus. and there was no shortage of ventilators just open the window or pull back the tent flap.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Wayne Sheldon » Fri May 15, 2020 4:05 am

Spanish philosopher Jorge Santayana is often credited with the saying (translated) "Those that do not learn from history, are destined to repeat it". Winston Churchill later said almost the same thing (I believe when he was arguing against appeasing Hitler).

I have often stated that"Human beings are seriously flawed, in that they cannot see clearly into the future. The best we can do is closely examine our past. Nearly every mistake that can be made, has been made many times before. Study history. Learn from history. What has happened in the past is our best way to know what will or will not work in the future."

I commend you for looking to our past for revelations of what is going on today.

As for Ford's sales in those few years. It is generally believed that the war effort and materials shortages as well as special taxes to fund the war were the main causes of the drop in sales for nearly all automobile manufacturers those years. Quite a number of smaller manufacturers were unable to recover from the war years. And many more were unable to ride out the recession that followed about two years after the end of the war.
Quite a number of manufacturing companies actually made a fortune during the war. Unfortunately, the government was slow paying those bills, and a lot of them were unable to keep the company going long enough without the money they were owed.

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Novice » Fri May 15, 2020 11:22 am

Wayne. Thanks for Your comments. Yes many factors involved. Government SLOW pay is still a fact of life a 100 yrs later. folks in New Orleans.Houston and many others still waiting for Hurricane relief probably Hurricane Sandy as well ? The uncanny information I found was how the situation in 1918 was almost a mirror image of what's going on now in 2020. with the exception of mass communication. Jet travel and Medical technology. But the Human factor seems unchanged with Protests.Marches.Naysayers. at least this time around most everyone has information on the pandemic and what the experts recommend to combat it. and as was the case in 1918 there are groups of non believers that think its FAKE news and they wont get sick.Just us old codger's. I may not survive but My model Ts will.

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by BobD » Fri May 15, 2020 12:28 pm

Novice and Wayne, I too found parallels in the 1918 flu pandemic recently while reading the book Me and the Model T by Roscoe Sheller, published in 1965. It chronicles Mr. Sheller’s experiences as a pioneering Ford dealer in rural Washington state.

I was taken aback while reading page 147. I have paraphrased the following.

He goes on to recount that the epidemic was ruthless and quick, devastating entire families. Most of the doctors had gone to war and the ones remaining were overworked.

Masks were declared mandatory and to be worn at all times outside the home. Churches, schools and theaters were closed. Gatherings were banned. Some claimed it was the Germans spreading the flu on purpose.

Book.png
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This book is a good read and can be purchased used for as low as $7.00 online.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm

Considering the number of deaths, combined with the fact that the US was 60% rural, one can only imagine if the vast majority lived couped up in cities, how it would have played out. The death rate was 0.6% And wonder of wonders, they didn't shut the country down. Everyone worked, and even fought and won a World War. Today, we need mental health experts to nurse us through the agony of having to take our antidepressants by ourselves.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Duey_C » Sat May 16, 2020 5:49 pm

What Scott said.
Nowadays, they're bolstering death rates locally and statewide. :evil: If you go in sick and die of cancer or old age, it's listed as covid not actual.
The correlations are interesting Jim. I need to do more study.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Oldav8tor » Sat May 16, 2020 10:14 pm

It wasn't totally business as usual in 1918. My dad was traveling with his family from Michigan to Manitoba, stopped in London, Ontario to see his uncle and was caught in a quarantine that kept them there all winter. Theirs was the only house on his uncle's street that didn't see a death. As it is, 675,000 Americans died, approximately 50 million world-wide.

People who tell you that "they" are inflating death totals are just trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic. Do you really think that it would possible to get all doctors, hospitals, county health departments and the like to agree to inflate the totals? Our president certainly wouldn't be orchestrating such a thing from the White House, just the opposite.

Our little county of 40,000 has had 36 cases and 5 deaths - ranging in age from 29 to 80. Our minister's son-in-law (age 41) died of it last week. The virus is real, inconvenient, but not to be ignored.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Mon May 18, 2020 12:36 pm

As bad as it is, there's no way we can go on like this. Who the L is gonna pay for it? The rich? While I do not believe it was the original intention, this has turned into a power play. These guys are drunk on it. Not a single one of their doomsday predictions have come true. Their death toll estimates have been off by an order of magnitude. You tell me something that doesn't prove to be true on multiple occasions, I quit believing anything you say. This whole thing started as "2 weeks to slow the spread". Does anyone remember that? It was supposed to just be a means of keeping hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. Is your hospital overwhelmed? Mine sure as L ain't. 2 weeks has become 2 months, and if I want to go outside, I'm being selfish? I'm about tired of hearing how selfish someone is if they go out or want to go back to work to feed their kids. If you are susceptible, stay home. If you are paranoid, stay home. Stay home and protect yourself. It is not the rest of society's responsibility to stay home to protect you. If this thing had been anywhere close to the predictions these "experts" have spewed, I might have a different take on it, but they've done nothing but fear-monger and dare I say "LIE"? At best, these guys don't got a clue. Frankly, I'm beginning to believe it's more nefarious than that. Roll over and give up your rights, if that's what you want, but not this boy.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by HPetrino » Mon May 18, 2020 5:28 pm

I greatly fear Hal is absolutely correct. There is a very bad virus out there. We need to take precautions, particularly most of us on this forum being "senior" citizens. BUT, we re being played. The media wants ratings, the politicians want votes. Apparently both groups are willing to do pretty much anything to get what they want. They play on out fears, a very effective strategy. I did a little math. Total cases in the USA are <0.5% of the population and deaths are <0.03% (that's less than 3 hundredths of 1 percent). I'm sorry for those who are sick and those who have been lost to this virus, but the numbers do not support the drama.

My $0.02 worth.

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Oldav8tor » Mon May 18, 2020 6:54 pm

If the death toll is less than predicted it may be some of the actions taken are working. There have been a lot of missteps, but remember this is a New virus. We don't have all the answers and predictions are being made based on the data available and are subject to change as new data comes in.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Mon May 18, 2020 7:44 pm

Don't get me wrong. I am thankful the death toll is no higher than it is, but the fact of the matter, a month or two ago, they were predicting 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the US over a 1 to 2 week period. I don't recall what it ended up being, but thankfully, we have yet to hit 100,000 much less 240,000 in two months! These guys are on a power trip. People are waking up. No one is forcing anyone into venturing out or opening their business if they don't want to, but they are damn sure trampling all over the rights of those that do. If this is all it takes to make us roll over, this country is in a lot bigger trouble than a friggin virus. Our forefathers are rolling over in their graves.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Dallas Landers » Mon May 18, 2020 10:24 pm

If I stay home for 6 weeks and am not exposed to any outside enviroment, wear a mask every time I go out and be forced to wear a mask to enter a business what happens to my immune system? Hmmm. Will it resist the everyday bugs and viruses that are around us every day in our life. I think my immune system will be weakened by doing this. I have run the numbers also and they dont add up for me either. Now this doesnt meen I dont take precautions. I dont make trips to crowded places I dont have to but thats normal for me. I have been taking some natural vitamins since this started. I have a construction company and have worked through it all but I have a small crew and we dont have to hug to get our work done. I cannot go into most supply stores for my business because the door is locked. You have to call and pick up curbside. BS, you want my business or not. We cant stay at home living off the government because the government lives off us, the working people! People need to wake up soon.
Rant over.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Norman Kling » Tue May 19, 2020 12:03 pm

The mask is not so much to keep you from getting the virus, but to keep you from spreading it if you are contagious. People in rural areas can get the disease and die from it as well as those from the populated areas. Same was true during the 1918 epidemic. My father in law's first wife died of the flu in 1918. She lived in Whitefish Montana. So Montana is not immune to spread of infectious diseases.

The main reason for the shut down and wearing masks, is not as much for stopping the disease, but to allow the medical profession to prepare for the severe cases. They needed to get the beds, and ventilators and medications ready for a surge. This has happened and now things are gradually re-opening. I would rather build my immune system by vaccination than to contract a disease of which I don't know how hard it would hit. So I am praying for a vaccine before the end of the year. Then and only then can we get more completely back to normal, unless the virus mutates to a form for which we are no longer immune.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Tue May 19, 2020 12:19 pm

There has been a flu vaccine for decades and people STILL get the flu. TENS of thousands of Americans die from it every year. I say again, TENS of THOUSANDS!

Early on I erroneously said that this was not going to be as bad as the flu. I am man enough to admit I was wrong on that. However, I still do not believe it is going to be 3 or 4 times as bad, much less 10 or 20 and hopefully, not even twice. We do not destroy our economy over the flu each year. How bad would the flu have to get before we DID destroy our economy over it? Twice as bad? Three times? Four?

People, this is bad. No doubt about it. But it AIN'T Armageddon. So let's quit pretending it is.

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Novice » Tue May 19, 2020 2:13 pm

My Original post was the effect of the 1918 Pandemic on The Ford Motor Company and model T production since the number of engines manufactured for that year dropped by about 50 % or 400,000 engines. Seems there were a number of factors with over 2000 Ford workers being sick a part it. I see Ford and the other Major automakers have gone back to work and the rest of the Country including TEXAS is ramping back up. If Automobile Deaths were treated with as much excitement and sense of urgency as the pandemic. Auto Deaths would be way down and they are not! been bouncing around 40,000 deaths for about 40 years with some drop in the last few years do to cars with safety Technology which is being off set by other Tech. Smart phone's. texting and watching videos while driving. 40,000 X 40 = 1,600,000 and You cant cure it with a vaccine. And reduced CAFE (mileage standards) Won't Help!


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Wed May 20, 2020 12:36 am

Not as bad as the flu?
You must be joking.
Covid is 37 times as deadly as the flu.
Even the people who do the normal flu estimates say there is NO COMPARISON. They also say NOT to use flu numbers, because a lot of them are empirical.
I can state that Korea and the U.S. had the first Covid deaths on the same day.
Korea is now 95% over it.
Where are we at?
New Zealand listened to their doctors and scientists, and went into lockdown, and they just reopened everything. No social distancing. All businesses and restaurants back open. Schools functioning as normal. Their Covid pandemic is OVER. They HANDLED it!
Where are we at?
We have killed the same number of people with Covid as the Vietnam War claimed, and we did it in just 100 days.
We have a good start on the second set of Vietnam death numbers. The infection is once again spreading widely.
Keep marching for "Freedom"!
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Wed May 20, 2020 6:43 am

If you're worried about it, stay home. No one is infringing on your right to do so.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by fschrope » Wed May 20, 2020 12:29 pm

OilyBill wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:36 am
Not as bad as the flu?
You must be joking.
Covid is 37 times as deadly as the flu.
Even the people who do the normal flu estimates say there is NO COMPARISON. They also say NOT to use flu numbers, because a lot of them are empirical.
I can state that Korea and the U.S. had the first Covid deaths on the same day.
Korea is now 95% over it.
Where are we at?
New Zealand listened to their doctors and scientists, and went into lockdown, and they just reopened everything. No social distancing. All businesses and restaurants back open. Schools functioning as normal. Their Covid pandemic is OVER. They HANDLED it!
Where are we at?
We have killed the same number of people with Covid as the Vietnam War claimed, and we did it in just 100 days.
We have a good start on the second set of Vietnam death numbers. The infection is once again spreading widely.
Keep marching for "Freedom"!
It's the "Freedom to Die"
What did Korea and New Zealand do to get over it so quickly?

Also, where did the 37x the regular flu figure come from?

I'm not trying argue, I just want to know. There is so much bad information floating around that I don't know who or what to believe.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Wed May 20, 2020 1:34 pm

Rather than me writing a long dissertation on what Korea and New Zealand did, just google "New Zealand Covid-19 Pandemic Response" and the same thing for Korea.
If you base your national response on SCIENCE, and leave out the politics and the goofy medical ideas, you can be successful at containing and eliminating it.
Right now, I just heard that people here are all upset that the government wants to track cell phone data. You gotta be kidding me!
You think the government really gives a S*** if you go to the liquor store or a strip club?
So, why are they doing it?
BECAUSE LOOKING AT CELL PHONE DATA, THEY CAN TELL EXACTLY WHO YOU WERE IN CONTACT WITH, AND WHO NEEDS TO BE CHECKED FOR COVID-19.
They can do it in real time, in a matter of minutes, the CDC says it is the BEST way to intercept and localize infections.
But you have people here who are concerned about the "Deep State" (What, they are all knowing and all-seeing? How come they didn't see THIS coming?).
The statistics on the Covid-19 vs. the flu came from the American Medical Association. Covid-19 ranges between 10 and 40 times as dangerous as the flu. It is NOT just another flu. Google "Covid-19 Ten to Forty Times More dangerous than the flu" That should take you to the AMA website.
Or you can go the WHO website, where they explode a LOT of the myths about Covid-19 and it's treatments
Take a look. Believe in science.
I have always put my faith in science. The thing with science is "It's true whether you believe it or not"


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Dallas Landers » Wed May 20, 2020 2:34 pm

Watch " plandemic movie.com"
If they havnt taken it down again. From a scientist.
Good to have dialog on this topic I think.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Wed May 20, 2020 4:27 pm

I ain't looked in few days, but last I saw, covid had killed 90,000 Americans. The flu numbers were given in a range from like 40 some odd to 60 some odd thousand. Sorry but I don't get 37 times from those numbers.

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Novice » Wed May 20, 2020 4:55 pm

Like they say if You live long enough something will KILL YOU.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Wed May 20, 2020 5:14 pm

Hal, the numbers are NOT equivalent.
Flu numbers are NOT counted from actual deaths. They are just computed empirically from data from only 13 state.
ACTUAL DEATH STATISTICS FROM FLU DEATHS:
Average weekly death toll from flu, from 2013 to 2020 = 752 per week.
Average weekly death toll from Covid-19, (Last week audited, was ended April 21) = 15,455
That week alone, the death toll from Covid 19 was TWENTY times higher than the death toll from the flu.
My numbers ae from the Centers for Disease Control, The Harvard Medical Journal, and the Journal of the American Medical Association.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Thu May 21, 2020 7:24 am

People can massage the numbers to show what they want. Everyone knows the flu is a seasonal thing. How fair is it to average it out over an entire year then compare a single week against that average? Then spew some ridiculously high number that is unbelievable to try to prove a point? That is the very thing that makes people not believe stuff even when someone decides to actually tell the truth. WOLF!!!!

These people have failed miserably at predicting this thing. It is nowhere near as bad as they have said. Are hospitals overwhelmed where you live? Compare the numbers of deaths and get back to me on a ratio. There ain't no way in L it's going to even be double digits, much less the first one being a 3.

Some countries are intentionally under-reporting their deaths. Ours is inflating them. It'd be interesting to know the TRUE mortality rate among HEALTHY Americans. There are tons of people who test positive for the antibody that had little to no symptoms. The more testing that is done, the more of this kind of thing will show up, and then the mortality rate will be even less. I believe a significant majority of the deaths have been among a relatively small percentage of the population that was very susceptible to something like this due to age and/or poor health. I believe most healthy people have little to worry about, especially if they take reasonable precautions. And by reasonable, I do NOT mean crawling under a rock or barricading yourself in your basement.

That is not to say that if you feel you are at risk, that you should not isolate yourself. You should.

Others who are just paranoid? They should isolate too. Stay home. Watch CNN. Take advantage of the spare time to shore up their roofs against the sky, which is undeniably falling. Lowes and Home Depot deliver. The CDC said yesterday that you are not likely to get it from touching a surface, so probably no need to wipe down the 2x4's before nailing them up. But you can never be too safe, so maybe they should anyway, just in case the CDC changes its mind......again.......Perhaps they could even buy their own personal ventilator. I hear there's a L of a surplus. Prices ought to be pretty low.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Thu May 21, 2020 6:52 pm

Oily

thanks for the link. It lists a lot of numbers and lots of opinions. It also explains the difference between Case Fatality Rate, and Infection Fatality Rate. Since we do not know the actual Infection rate for sure, but spot studies have shown it to be between 30 and 50 times higher than CASES identified, this shows it is not much worse than the flu.

If you're getting a check to sit home. Great. Not everyone is, because honestly, not everyone has the luxury of staying home and watching their business fail. Of course, statistics show that shopping at large corporations, will not cause problems, while shopping at a small business is VERY risky. :roll: . For the small businessman, staying home and starving is 100% fatal, so maybe there is some truth in that.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Thu May 21, 2020 7:33 pm

Hal;
The numbers are the numbers. They AREN'T being massaged. They AREN"T over-reporting. They are reporting from death certificate data.
Harvard Medical School is massaging numbers and faking data? What do you base that claim on? Show me some facts.
Deadliest week of flu deaths 2015.16 = 351 deaths per week.
Deadliest week of flu deaths 2017/18 = 1.626 deaths per week.
Talk to anyone who worked in a hospital in the State of New York, and they will tell you flat out that you don't know what you are talking about!
Unfortunately, we can't average the deaths for the Covid-19, because it isn't over yet. But the fact is, that the death numbers for the week ending April 21st are as follows:
Deadliest week of Covid deaths week of April 21 = 15,455.
Do you see any differences in these numbers?
If you have a way of "massaging" the numbers, please do so. I would like to see the results. As far as I know, the only people massaging numbers are the people at FOX news. It's EASY to find refutation on THEIR numbers, because they outright lie all the time.
I've NEVER heard that numbers from the CDC or the WHO were either wrong, or fake. They report the numbers they have.
There is no "Alternative Truth" here.
If everybody reporting numbers is lying (World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control, etc. please explain WHY they would be lying? What would be the motivation for this?
Once again, GO TO THE REPORTS FOR NEW ZEALAND OR KOREA. Then come up with data that shows what they have done is fake.
I ABSOLUTELY will not tolerate lies being dispensed as truth, or "alternative truth" or ANY other type of description that is a LIE.
A LIE is a LIE.
You can believe what you want, even if it's wrong. But in this case particularly, what you believe can KILL you.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Thu May 21, 2020 9:42 pm

Oily and others

South Korea, Case Mortality Rates by age:

30-39, 0.17%
40-49, 0.21%
50-59, 0.76
60-69, 2.79%
70-79, 10.78%
80+, 25.5%

So, if you're working age or younger, be smart and live your life; if you're retired be careful

That was a very useful set of statistics to look up. Thanks. And BTW, now that I know FOX news only tells lies, I know exactly how much I'm interested in digesting any more of your posts...it wasn't too hard to figure that was your slant, but it's appreciated that you removed all doubt. That and the fact that they're becoming increasingly unhinged.

How about telling us about your T? That would be a good change of pace.
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by fschrope » Thu May 21, 2020 10:24 pm

Well, OilyBill, you lost all credibility once you attacked Fox - at least in my eyes. That's the way liberals do it though when anyone disagrees with them.
Me? I read about all of the main stream media. They all have an agenda. Fox is more conservative than most, but still not extreme right wing. CNN & MSNBC are the other side of the coin. The news we get today is entertainment, not news. It's all about ratings which leads to money.

Now, I got that off my chest. I have to agree with a lot the Hal says as for massaging the numbers. Sure they can do that. I only know of one Covid death. The guy was on his death bed anyway and they decided to check him for Covid. Yup, he tested positive. Did Covid kill him? Maybe, but he would have died within hours or maybe days anyway. How many others are the same way? A bunch I bet. Why does it kill so many in Nursing Homes? Duh! Because they are in poor health or they wouldn't be there in the first place. How much did Covid shorten their lives? I don't know. It could have been hours, days or weeks or maybe even years. I just heard the other day that reported melanoma cases are way down. Is it because folks are staying in doors out of the sun? Some would assume so I'll bet. Others would figure out that cases aren't reported because folks that have it aren't going to the doctor. Will some of them die from it eventually? Maybe. Should these be considered Covid deaths? Why not, if Covid didn't exist, they probably would have gone to the doctor and been treated. How many other situations like this exist? A bunch I'll bet.

Some questions remain unanswered by the media. What percentage of the folks that are admitted to the hospital for Covid die from Covid? How many recover? The big question is though, what percentage of those that test positive die? Again, no idea. What percentage of the general population test positive? There is no way of telling - yet. How many of those that test positive never have any symptoms? How many go on to get sick?

There is talk of giving those that test negative some sort of ID to prove so. What happens if once they get this ID, they go to the neighborhood bar and become infected? What good does it do to give them ID unless you're going to lock them up where they have no chance of becoming infected.

As for New Zealand's response - so, they have it under control or are at least headed that way. What happens when they have no more new cases and assume they give the all clear? What are they going to do - stop all folks from entering the country?????? or isolating all newcomers for two weeks?

BUT, to me, the bottom line is: Is the cure worse than the disease? What good does it do to lower the death count of the oldest in society if you destroy the society. What if it is taken over by the likes of China or Russia or a lot in South America or most of Africa? What have you accomplished? You save a very small percentage but destroy the most free country in the world?

ME? I'll take my chances with Covid. I'll bet I have a 99% chance of surviving without serious illness. Like I said, I'll take my chances and I'll be 77 in a few days.

Will our country survive on the present course? I don't know, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

One more thing on a side note to show how screwed up our society is - I read where a woman gave birth in a rest room and the baby drowned in the toilet. She abandoned it and was charged with first degree murder. I think it may be been in some sort of factory - maybe a meat packing plant or such. From the picture and name, I'll bet she was from Africa and willing do to the work that most of us in this couldn't/wouldn't do. Think of this: If she had gotten an abortion a couple of weeks earlier, all would have been well and legal.


fschrope
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by fschrope » Thu May 21, 2020 10:27 pm

Scott_Conger wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:42 pm
Oily and others

South Korea, Case Mortality Rates by age:

30-39, 0.17%
40-49, 0.21%
50-59, 0.76
60-69, 2.79%
70-79, 10.78%
80+, 25.5%

So, if you're working age or younger, be smart and live your life; if you're retired be careful

That was a very useful set of statistics to look up. Thanks. And BTW, now that I know FOX news only tells lies, I know exactly how much I'm interested in digesting any more of your posts...it wasn't too hard to figure that was your slant, but it's appreciated that you removed all doubt. That and the fact that they're becoming increasingly unhinged.

How about telling us about your T? That would be a good change of pace.

Scott, I agree with your post, but the percentages don't add up to 100%. What gives?


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Dallas Landers » Thu May 21, 2020 11:03 pm

The meat and dairy in stores are in short supply and prices are going up up up because of it. I just talked with a buddy in Iowa. He told me a friend drives truck hauling livestock. He spent at least two weeks along with many others hauling hogs from northern Iowa to Missouri to a building where they gassed the whole load the loaded them in trucks with loaders and sent them to the rendering plant. 10's of thousands.

The " news" reported that the reason for shortage of eggs was the packaging for commercial industry was in 30 dozen boxes. Grocery stores cant sell 30 dozen box count? WHAT IS WRONG HERE. Put the eggs in the store at low cost " bring your own carton". There are so many things wrong with this whole " plandemic". I agree if you dont want to be lied to, dont turn on the TV. Some of the things going on is insane. We cannot make this political so I guess I have to stop here.

Enjoy driving your T every chance you get for if this continues we will lose more of our freedoms than we can bear. As far as I know the CDC has only made recomondations to deal with this. The laws come from others that know how to protect us all.
A few miles north of here, a guy and his wife had purchased a house in Michigan. They were from Indiana. During the shelter in place order he went to the new house to work on it. By himself and stayed inside the house to do so. The local police seen his plate on his car in the drive and knocked on his door. Asked what he was doing. He told them. They issued him a $1000 fine and made him leave his own home. I could go on and on.............
Im glad to know Im not alone in my thinking.


OilyBill
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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Thu May 21, 2020 11:39 pm

Sure, Scott!
Always happy to talk cars.
I have a 1914 Ford Runabout. I also have several other cars, including a Ford Model A, a Franklin, a Studebaker, a couple Overlands, and a couple of Brushes. To me, anything after WWII is just a used car.
I do most of my own work, except for painting. My skills in that area are poor. But I am an excellent machinist, pattern-maker, and foundryman. I make my own patterns and castings. I learned the basics in high school, and have been doing it ever since. I have been in aviation since 1976, with most of my work on Learjets. I am retired now, but I still do aircraft work. In my career, I never killed anyone, I never damaged an airplane, and I never was given a violation by the FAA. (When a doctor makes a mistake, he kills one patient. When an airplane mechanic makes a mistake, he may kill 5, or 10, or 50, or 300 people).

If I seem very dogmatic to some people, it's because I am an airplane mechanic. Airplane mechanics in general become rather dogmatic, just through the simple fact that in aviation, there are only 2 considerations. Things can be correct, in which case everything is fine. Or they can be bad. There is no middle ground in aviation. There is no such thing as "kind of good". It it isn't right, then it is bad. That's all there is.

In reference to the other comments, I am still a registered Republican. I used to listen to Fox news. But I found that every time I got interested in something, and I dug into it for further facts, I would discover that Fox either bent the story, or was lying outright. Then they would accuse everyone else of being "liberal media". So it turned out FOX was lying to me.
In aviation, a liar has a short career. People will trust you, until they find out you lie. Once they discover that, your opinion value drops to zero or close to it. I made it a practice to find out how reliable people were before I extended myself on their behalf. Give me the facts, give them to me straight, and don't sugar-coat anything. Once I found that the majority of Fox information was either inaccurate, or just a bald-faced lie, I quit relying on them as a source of accurate information. Opinion? Yes. Accurate information? No.
If you can shoe me an instance of "liberal media" making stuff up, show it to me. They are just "The Media" and when they make a mistake, they admit it, and do a retraction. I have seen retractions several times on CBS news. Dan Rather lost his job that way. If I check their claims, I find them to be true. That my personal experience. People here are telling me that the numbers I see are "massaged", "overcounted" or "undercounted". But when I check, it turns out all the numbers are as reported. I have yet to have someone give me contradictory numbers. I would welcome the information.
I'm still hearing the idiot "birther" rumors about Obama, that Fox news started. They never did explain how his birth announcement was printed in the Honolulu papers, in the public records section under births. I have NEVER seen Fox EVER do a retraction on ANY story, no matter how farfetched.
Last of all, if you believe FOX news, then put your money where your mouth is. Liquidate your IRA and buy gold or silver. Get a reverse mortgage on your house. Buy some of the crappy tribute "collector" coins that are not even worth 90 cents each. You don't see ANY of that crap on ANY "liberal media" channel. Because, like everything else on FOX, it's just a bunch of lies. If you do those things, you will soon be broke. If you march for "Freedom" you will soon be dead. I would say that Darwin's icy cold fingers are about to touch a LOT of people who don't understand science.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Fri May 22, 2020 6:10 am

I've told you all over the years that I would let you know when predicted things happen to me. Earlier in this thread, I was true to my word when I admitted I had been wrong about the death toll. It has exceeded the flu. I was wrong.

I still have not broken my arm and I still crank right handed.

I will let you all know when I get on my deathbed from covid.

Oily, you get back to me when there have been 37 times as many US deaths from covid as from the flu. From the CDC numbers I've seen (25,000 to 69,000) that would have to be 925,000 to 2,553,000. I'll be waiting.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Fri May 22, 2020 8:25 am

Fred S

those % are not meant to add up...they are not partial totals of 100%, but rather the percentage of any given population (by age) who will likely die if they become ill.
Scott Conger

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Fri May 22, 2020 10:57 am

Hal, as of this morning, the Covid deaths in the U.S. have reached 95,000.
With the easing of restrictions, I think we are going to see a huge second wave. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I am correct. i
I don't think you will have long to wait.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Fri May 22, 2020 11:05 am

Dallas, give me the facts to back up your posts.
What was the guy doing that they gave him a fine?
As far as the hogs being slaughtered, you can take this as another indication of the seriousness of the Covid epidemic.
Due to the infection, a lot of the meat plants are shut down, and can't process animals. (Not just pork, but chickens, beef, etc.)
That's because they have 30% of their workforces sick.
It's NOT because the "Deep State" is trying to create food shortages. The Corona-19 deniers are the ones doing that, apparently in place of the "Deep State".
Meat plants are fully open in New Zealand and Korea. We could have had the same condition here. But deniers have made it otherwise. Put the blame where it belongs.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by fschrope » Fri May 22, 2020 11:39 am

Sooo......OilyBill, what do you propose. You seem to argue with about everything that others post that don't agree with you. Most of what others post seem to be just common sense. We do, in this country, have rules that we have to play under. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore. The governors of several states seem to think that the rules don't apply anymore. I remember reading about a group in Michigan that sued the governor about the shutdown saying it was unconstitutional. The judge ruled for the governor saying that the situation was to serious to allow the constitution to get in the way. Sad, but that seems to be the way we are headed. I don't trust the government to do anything "right". Those in government do what it takes to get votes - and keep them in power. Period. Anything beneficial that happens otherwise in accidental. And..........people accept it. That is what scares me the most.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Dallas Landers » Fri May 22, 2020 12:19 pm

Oily Bill
This couple bought a house in Michigan to downsize for retirement. He drove to his house to work on the house and get it ready to move into. He was alone and stayed inside the house. People in Michigan could not use their vacation home for shelter in place. He owns the home but got fined for being in his own house.
The reason I know is a friends daughter lives across the road from this guy and saw the police and called him to make sure everything was alright.

I said nothing about the deep state. I just think if there was common sense involved, food could be made available instead of going for fetilizer.

The 1st shutdown was to not overwhelm the hospitols. I dont see that happening. All the extra hospitols set up in NY. And most were not needed. Dont get me wrong, better to prepare and not need them. Some meat plants shut down because they had some cases of covid. 30% sick? Had not heard that but then again I cant believe what I read on the interweb or hear on TV.
Its kind of nice that "stay away from me" is not rude but a public sevice announcement.

Im not telling anyone what to believe or not to. Everyone has to evaluate their own situation and make their decision. I have made mine and you yours. Glad we can discuss these things freeley.
Model T's bring all kinds of folks together and at least we can agree that they are great. Both cars and people.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Hal » Fri May 22, 2020 2:00 pm

Oily Bill,

You seriously believe 925,000 Americans will die from Covid 19 this year???????

10 times what we have now?????

Really????

I admitted I was wrong on here. You gonna be man enough to do the same when your prediction fails to come true?


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Fri May 22, 2020 7:43 pm

Hal, I'm fervently hoping that I AM wrong.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Fri May 22, 2020 10:59 pm

Oily

Just spent a little time going over your many ways of going broke following advice from the TV. A quick look gives actual numbers to something I already knew to be true in a general sense, that being that gold is up 500% since 2000, and S&P is up 109% in the same time frame, it appears to be a pretty good insurance policy, just like market diversification in investments is sound investment policy. I am not an investment adviser, nor do I suggest anyone own gold. It's an individual's decision to learn history's lessons and heed those lessons or not. However, no one has ever gone broke from owning gold, either physical or paper; it has never gone to "zero". The same cannot be said of stocks or bonds.

How's that for thread drift?
Scott Conger

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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Duey_C » Sat May 23, 2020 1:54 am

Pretty sure 30% of the workforce at Jennie-O here in MN WASN'T infected and sick when they shut down. Poultry plants.
The "They" my friend was simply second-hand knowledge (not here-say) with local and then the MDH (Minnesota Department of Health) website, statewide shown in a rare bit I watched on the TV (Tell your Vision) showing that suspected cases were listed as co19 anyway!
Seems someone gets paid for co19 so why not????

I've worked in dirty welding shops since 21 or so and I smoke. Screwed. Like a farmer friend, with all he's inhaled? Screwed.

Agreed on many points tho: Nothing to trifle with. AND. Some thing is nefarious about this whole thing...
Lucky are those that can have a test to see if they have the antibodies. I think I had it February! It passed. Yes, I've slept a LOT. Felt good.
Thank God I was layed-off due to this crud.
Three months to the day today.
:lol: CNN! Yeah, they sure would be the ones to watch! :) Leave that to our dem brothers. :lol:

VERY glad to see some friends have a brain!

Take care. ALL of you.
I lost 4 young chickens to dogs today so I'm in a "state"!!!!!!
Since I lost my mind mind, I feel more liberated


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by OilyBill » Sat May 23, 2020 11:51 pm

That's fine, Scott
But I think if you did a "theoretical buy" at some point in history, you will find that overall, your returns are pretty low.
I can only say that when gold got to $1800 per ounce. I sold all mine. You CAN actually make money with gold, since it is such a huge market, it is very hard for it to be manipulated. That is NOT the case for most other items. The other thing is, with gold you pay a premium to buy it, and pay a penalty when you sell it. Plus, you have to take care of it. Call and see how much they will sell you an ounce of gold for, and then call back and see what they will give if you sell an ounce.
Sugar = totally controlled market, by international agreements.
Diamonds = controlled market, run by DeBeers.
Emeralds + controlled market. (I found this out from sitting next to a woman on a flight, who happened to be an emerald buyer. I inquired if it was possible to make money by investing in emeralds, and she just laughed and said "Don't waste your money. The emerald market is just like the diamond market. It is controlled so it generates the maximum profits for the people who control it."
Silver = semi-controlled market, because it is also an industrial metal. But there have been attempts to manipulate it, notably by the Hunt brothers of Texas. You can google that and see how that worked out.
The coins they sell on FOX are not even real coins. They are "Tribute" coins, that look like the real coin, and have a gold coating of a few micrograms of gold. The next time you see an ad for some, google them and see what they are worth. The last one I looked at was a "Tribute $50,00 gold coin". If it had been real, it was worth about $3,000. But the "Tribute" coins are basically worthless. They sell for $9.95, and if you check into them, they are worth about 80 cents based on gold value. Buying 80 cents worth of gold, for $10.00, means you will never get rich.
Ford Model T's = Cost about $5,000. Put about $5.000 into it, and you have a car worth $7500.
But I'd MUCH rather have a model T than it's value in gold, sugar, emeralds, diamonds, silver, or anything else. At least a Model T you get to play with, take care of, tinker with, "improve", and drive around. Worth much more to me.


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Re: Pandemic 1918 / 2020

Post by Scott_Conger » Mon May 25, 2020 5:50 pm

Since gold has hit/exceeded $1800US only 17 unique days over a two month span in 2011 in it's entire history, you sir, are an investing god. My hat is off to you.

From that perch, I can definitely see why you would warn me about gold clad fake coins and the existence of spread in the buy/sell/bid world. Do you believe the entire world populated with boobs, or is it just me? :lol: In any event, it's nice that you're looking out for everyone. :D
Scott Conger

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